| Derivation group | Validation group | p values | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Grading systems | mrPSM1 | mrPSM2 | mrPSM1 | mrPSM2 | Park et al.’s system | mrPSM1 vs. Park et al | mrPSM2 vs. Park et al |
Low risk (%)a,b | 17.4 (15/86) | 16.7 (14/84) | 25.0 (14/56) | 24.1 (13/54) | 17.9 (5/28) | - | - |
Intermediate risk (%)a,b | 37.5 (12/32) | 31.8 (7/22) | 47.6 (10/21) | 40.0 (6/15) | 42.6 (20/47) | - | - |
High risk (%)a,b | 65.2 (15/23) | 60.0 (21/35) | 72.7 (8/11) | 68.4 (13/19) | 53.8 (7/13) | - | - |
AUC | 0.705 (0.614–0.795) | 0.713 (0.624–0.802) | 0.672 (0.565–0.780) | 0.686 (0.577–0.794) | 0.646 (0.542–0.751) | 0.566 | 0.395 |
Cut-off value |  ≥ 2 |  ≥ 2 |  ≥ 2 |  ≥ 2 |  ≥ 2 | - | - |
Accuracy | 0.695 (0.692–0.698) | 0.695 (0.692–0.698) | 0.682 (0.677–0.687) | 0.682 (0.677–0.687) | 0.568 (0.563–0.574) | 0.089 | 0.078 |
Sensitivity | 0.643 (0.498–0.788) | 0.667 (0.524–0.809) | 0.562 (0.391–0.734) | 0.594 (0.424–0.764) | 0.844 (0.718–0.970) | 0.008 | 0.013 |
Specificity | 0.717 (0.628–0.806) | 0.707 (0.617–0.797) | 0.750 (0.637–0.863) | 0.732 (0.616–0.848) | 0.411 (0.282–0.540) |  < 0.001 |  < 0.001 |
PPV | 0.491 (0.359–0.623) | 0.491 (0.361–0.621) | 0.562 (0.391–0.734) | 0.559 (0.392–0.726) | 0.450 (0.324–0.576) | - | - |
NPV | 0.826 (0.745–0.906) | 0.833 (0.754–0.913) | 0.750 (0.637–0.863) | 0.759 (0.645–0.873) | 0.821 (0.680–0.963) | - | - |