Parameter | Value | Distribution (SE) | Source |
---|---|---|---|
Lifetime state transition model probabilities | |||
Probability BCR in the NEOD-N1 (pBCR) | 0.45 (Gompertz; Rate 0.66, shape -0.38) | Normal | Mandel et al. [21] |
Percentage with BCR to salvage | 0.63 | Beta (0.063) | De Bruycker et al. [22] |
N1-NEOD to salvage | pBCR * Percentage with BCR to salvage | ||
N1-NEOD to palliative | pBCR * (1-Percentage with BCR to salvage) | ||
Salvage to palliative | 0.31 | Beta (0.031) | Decaestecker et al. [23] |
Cancer mortality (palliative) | 0.032 | Beta (0.0032) | Tumati et al. [24] |
Cancer mortality (false palliative) | 0.032 | Beta (0.0032) | Assumption: equals Cancer Mortality |
All-Cause mortality | Standard mortality rates age 69 and higher | Fixed | CBS [25] |
[^{68}Ga]Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT probabilities | |||
pN0 to palliative (FP) | 0 | Fixed | PSMA PET/CT indicates multiple LNMs in N0 patients |
pN1_{lim} to palliative (FP) | 0.027 | Beta (0.027) | PSMA PET/CT indicates multiple LNMs in N1_{lim} |
Costs (€) | |||
NEOD-N0 and N1 | 108 | Gamma (€11) | De Rooij et al. [26] |
(False) palliative | 4,613^{1} | Gamma (€1,153) |
Schwenk et al. [27] FK [28] |
Salvage | 8,022^{2} | Gamma (€802) | Schwenk et al. [27] |
Palliative to death (transition cost) | 16,720 | Gamma (€1,672) | Tien et al. [29] |
Utilities (QALY) | |||
NEOD-N0 and N1 | 0.81^{3} | Beta (0.081) | Versteegh et al. [30] |
Scholte et al. [10] | |||
(False) palliative | 0.67 | Beta (0.067) | Stewart et al. [31]; Asymptomatic spread |
Salvage | 0.77 | Beta (0.077) | Heijnsdijk et al. [32]; RT |